NOactive
YES @ 1.0%3/30/2026
Claude 5 is unlikely to be released by March 31, 2026 given Anthropic typical release cadence
·Anthropic has not announced a Claude 5 release date
·Major model releases typically have preview periods
·Claude 4.6 Opus was recently released, suggesting Claude 5 is further out
NOactive
YES @ 0.3%3/30/2026
Making NYC buses free requires massive budget reallocation that cannot happen in days
·Free bus service requires MTA board approval and funding
·No credible reports of imminent free bus policy
·Revenue loss would be hundreds of millions annually
NOactive
YES @ 0.5%3/30/2026
The Gold Card program faces legal and logistical hurdles that prevent March 31 implementation
·Immigration policy changes require regulatory process
·Congressional opposition would slow implementation
·No final program details have been published
NOactive
YES @ 0.1%3/30/2026
A Ukraine-Russia peace deal by March 31 is extremely unlikely given fundamental disagreements
·Territory disputes remain unresolved
·No active peace negotiations are producing results
·Both sides continue active military operations
NOactive
YES @ 0.2%3/30/2026
Yoon Suk-yeol is unlikely to be released from custody given the severity of charges
·Yoon faces insurrection charges which carry severe penalties
·South Korean courts have extended his detention repeatedly
·Political situation makes early release unlikely
NOactive
YES @ 0.9%3/30/2026
No new country is likely to join the Abraham Accords by March 31 given regional tensions
·Gaza conflict has frozen normalization efforts
·Saudi Arabia, the most likely candidate, has set conditions
·Only 2 days remain for diplomatic process to complete
NOactive
YES @ 0.4%3/30/2026
Tax code changes require Congressional legislation that cannot pass in 2 days
·Tax reform requires both chambers of Congress
·No active bill addresses gambling loss deduction caps
·Gambling industry lobbying alone cannot change tax law this fast
NOactive
YES @ 0.4%3/30/2026
Foreign military intervention in Gaza is extremely unlikely given geopolitical constraints
·No nation has signaled willingness to intervene militarily
·US support for Israel prevents third-party intervention
·International intervention would risk wider regional war
NOactive
YES @ 0.3%3/30/2026
Sarkozy is unlikely to be jailed by March 31 given French legal system appeals
·French appeals process allows extended delays
·Former presidents typically receive alternative sentences
·His legal team continues to challenge convictions
NOactive
YES @ 0.9%3/30/2026
A tariff dividend program requires legislation that cannot pass Congress by March 31
·No bill for tariff dividends has been introduced
·Tariff revenue is already allocated in federal budget
·The concept lacks bipartisan support